Creşterea pensiilor în realitatea economică actuală

September 28, 2020September 28, 2020 Radu Burnete

Laurian Lungu Cu mai bine de un an în urmă, când legea pensiilor a fost promulgată, o serie de instituţii şi economişti au semnalat pericolul major reprezentat de creşterea accelerată a costului cu pensiile asupra bugetului. Referinţa deficitului bugetar era atunci de -3% din PIB într-o perioadă în care criza epidemiologică nu exista încă. Astăzi, referinţa deficitului bugetar este de -9% din PIB într-un context macroeconomic cu o incertitudine mult mai ridicată. Spaţiul fiscal pentru creşterea pensiilor, cu orice valoare mai mare decât rata inflaţiei, este non-existent. O mărire cu 14% a punctului de pensie, în varianta propusă de guvern, […]

Romania – The Macroeconomic Impact of the Covid-19 Crisis

July 27, 2020August 17, 2020 Radu Burnete

In this analysis, Ella Kallai and Laurian Lungu look at the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the Romanian economy. The paper starts by highlighting macroeconomic imbalances that existed prior to the crisis. It then assesses the impact on labor markets and economic sectors underscoring the consequences for public finances and country risk. Finally, the analysis addresses the fundamental issue of restarting the economy in the context of the European Green Deal. This analysis was prepared for the Energy Policy Group (EPG) as part of a European Climate Foundation grant. Download the full analysis (EN) Descărcați analiza (RO)

Macroeconomic Aspects of the Post Covid-19 Crisis

June 10, 2020June 10, 2020 Laurian Lungu

CPAG co-founder Laurian Lungu held a Zoom-based presentation on the “Macroeconomic Aspects of Post Covid-19 Crisis” for the Independent Directors Association on 03 June 2020. Has the answer of central banks & governments to the Covid-19 crisis been excessive? Implications on public debt, risk and inflation. Increasing the role of the state in the economy – a temporary or a more prolonged effect? Macroeconomic risks for the Romanian economy. How could Romania’s economy reposition itself in a post Covid-19 world? Presentation

Ritmul de creştere al pensiilor va fi anul viitor mai mare decât cel al salariilor.

December 15, 2019December 15, 2019 Radu Burnete

Politica pensiilor publice a fost, în ultimele trei decenii, un instrument utilizat intens electoral. Restructurarea economică de la sfârşitul mileniului trecut şi un avans demografic defavorabil au dus la situaţia de astăzi în care 5,6 milioane de salariaţi activi susţin 5,2 milioane de pensionari. Creşterea puterii de cumpărare a pensionarilor este o problemă socială în sine, dat fiind nivelul iniţial redus al pensiei, pentru marea majoritate a acestora. Dar, aşa cum s-a implementat în ultima decadă şi jumătate, politica pensiilor publice a devenit un factor de obstrucţie în elevarea potenţialului de creştere economică. Angrenând periodic cheltuieli masive, de o magnitudine […]

Energy Strategy Summit 2019

July 6, 2019December 15, 2019 Radu Burnete

CPAG co-founder Laurian Lungu was a guest speaker at the 5th edition of the Energy Strategy Summit organised by energynomics.ro in Bucharest, on 11 June 2019. Main points made in the speech: Highlighted a few aspects which would impact Romania’s energy transition process towards achieving its 2030 climate and energy targets, as envisaged by the EU’s energy strategy objectives, namely: The link between economic growth and energy consumption. Dual challenge facing the energy industry, i.e. reducing emissions but keeping up the world demand for energy. Financing the energy transition process. Traditionally, the correlation between economic growth and energy consumption was […]

Joining the Eurozone, A Jump in the Dark

June 8, 2018February 10, 2019 Laurian Lungu

During the Eurosfat Forum in 2018 Laurian delivered a presentation on the main challenges Romanian and some of the unknowns it will face considering the euro zone itself is going through a difficult period.

When Should Romania Join the European Banking Union, Sooner or Later?

January 15, 2015February 10, 2019 cpagadm

Laurian Lungu and Ella Kallai
This paper was prepared for the European Institute in Romania in 2015. Laurian and Ella argued following a thorough analysis, that in joining the Banking Union Romania should adopt a wait and see strategy and carefully weigh the pros and cons.

The Impact of EU Funds on Romanian Finances

November 8, 2012February 10, 2019 Laurian Lungu

Laurian Lungu, 2012
The primary aim of this paper is to look at the potential consequences an increase in the EU budget would have onto the size of the domestic budget deficits. As the simulations in this paper show, if the EU budget for the 2014-2020 period was adopted in the current form put forward by the European Commisson,

A Note on Romania’s Public Debt

August 22, 2012February 10, 2019 Laurian Lungu

Laurian Lungu, 2012
This paper looks at main dynamics regarding Romania’s debt and budget deficits and tries to estimate the structural adjustments needed to put them on a sustainable path.

Anti-Crisis Measures on the Labour Market

December 15, 2010February 10, 2019 Laurian Lungu

by Laurian Lungu, 2010
Overview of specific labour market measures adopted in EU countries. Evaluation on Romanian policy changes (VAT, wage cuts) on consumption and tax revenues.