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0.7%
Real GDP Growth
2025 full year · vs. 0.9% in 2024
Lowest in the regionBack to publications
Macroeconomic ReportMarch 11, 2026
Romania Macro Risks Report – March 2026
A data-driven snapshot of Romania's macroeconomic outlook in a regional context — covering twin deficits, inflation, monetary policy, unemployment, and GDP growth. Full-year 2025 data.
By Ella Kállai, Co-founder · Consilium Policy Advisors Group · office@cpag.ro · www.cpag.ro
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9.6%
Inflation (CPI)
2025 · Jan 2026: 9.62% YoY
Highest in EU since Jan 2024👷
6.0%
Unemployment Rate
2025 · ↑ from 5.5% in 2024
Higher plateau🏛️
−7.6%
Consolidated Budget Deficit
2025 · ↓ from −8.7% in 2024
Larger correction than expected🌍
−8%
Current Account Deficit
2025 · ↓ from −8.5% in 2024
Twin deficit vulnerabilityReport Sections
Six thematic analyses — data from Eurostat, NBR, Ministry of Finance, INSSE, ECB, European Commission
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Section 01
Executive Summary
Macro Debriefing – March 2026
GDP expanded by only 0.7% in 2025 — below 2024's already modest pace. The twin deficit remains the fundamental weakness, though showing a larger-than-expected correction in H2 2025. Gross public debt exceeded the Maastricht threshold for the first time. High inflation expected to last until H2 2026.
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Section 02
Twin Deficits
Larger correction than expected in H2 2025
The consolidated budget deficit was 7.6% of GDP in 2025 (down from 8.7% in 2024). Gross public debt exceeded the Maastricht threshold (60% of GDP) for the first time. Public financing need reached EUR 53bn in 2025. Government bond yields fell after markets acknowledged the H2 2025 correction.
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Section 03
Inflation
Annual inflation at 9.62% in January 2026
The combined effect of energy price cap lift in July and VAT rise from 19% to 21% in August pushed annual CPI to almost 10% YoY. Out of the 4pp increase in CPI since June, 64% was due to energy prices. NBR forecasts CPI at 3.9% by December 2026 and 2.9% by end-2027.
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Section 04
Monetary Policy
Reference rate unchanged at 6.5%
NBR maintained the monetary policy rate at 6.5% pa (highest in EU, held since August 2024). Interest rate differential vs. ECB at 4.35pp. The REER with euro zone appreciated 3.9% vs. Dec 2024 and 14% vs. 2019. Euroisation of both loans and deposits continues to rise. No change expected at April 7, 2026 meeting.
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Section 05
Unemployment
On a higher plateau · Wage inflation below CPI since July 2025
Average unemployment rose to 6% in 2025 from 5.5% in 2024. Vacancies declined 14% in 2025 vs. 2024. Labour market tightness declined — unemployed per vacant job increased from 13 (2024) to 16 (2025). Net wage growth slowed to 6.5% (12M avg, Dec 2025) from 13.4% (Dec 2024).
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Section 06
GDP Growth
Real annual GDP growth 0.7% in 2025
GDP grew 0.7% YoY in 2025 — lowest in the region. Supply drivers: agriculture and construction. Demand driver: gross fixed capital formation (+4.1% YoY). Net export drag improved significantly (-0.6pp in 2025 vs. -2.8pp in 2024). Labour productivity increased +3.8% while labour cost declined -0.3%.
Risk Assessment 2026
Key upside and downside risks identified by the report for the year ahead
Twin Deficits — Downside & Upside Risks
- DownsideFaster deficit reduction if fiscal discipline strengthens with EU funding support
- DownsideLower interest rates on government borrowing as markets acknowledge fiscal consolidation
- DownsidePrivate sector entering a saving mood due to geopolitical tensions
- UpsideSlower deficit reduction due to lower tax revenues from economic slowdown
- UpsideExports hit by geopolitical tensions
Inflation — Risk Assessment 2026
- UpsideMiddle East conflict if prolonged could increase price of oil, natural gas and derivative products — additional upward pressure on inflation
- DownsideGradual disinflation expected: NBR projects 3.9% YoY by Dec 2026 and 2.9% by end-2027
Monetary Policy — Lower Reference Rates
- ConditionIf inflation decelerates faster than expected (below 7% in H1 2026)
- ConditionIf regional monetary policy rates decline significantly following potential ECB cuts
Monetary Policy — Higher Reference Rates
- ConditionIf inflation remains sticky above 7% throughout 2026 due to VAT and energy shocks
- ConditionIf depreciation pressures on RON intensify beyond what is considered harmful for inflation
Labour Market — Downside Risks Dominate
- DownsideLow vacancy rates across all sectors reduce hiring despite wage pressure
- DownsideUncertainties in global trade might lower employment in export sectors (industry and services)
- DownsideImpact of AI biased towards job destruction rather than job creation
- DownsideReal wages continuing to decline as wage growth remains below inflation
- UpsideRetail trade continues to expand hiring; EU-funded investments supporting construction employment
GDP Growth — Headwinds & Tailwinds
- HeadwindInflation persistency reduces consumer purchasing power and consumption
- HeadwindFiscal consolidation path limits government spending and investment support
- HeadwindUS tariffs (20% on EU products, 25% on steel and aluminium) reduce exports
- TailwindAccession of EU funds supports investments and gross capital formation
- TailwindNegative real interest rates support for borrowings and business expansion
Labour Productivity & Costs
2025 full year · Romania vs. regional peers · Source: Eurostat
Labour Productivity
+3.8%
Labour productivity growth in Romania · 2025
Romanian labour productivity remains lower by 11% than in Poland, 14% than in Hungary, and 35% than in Czechia.
Labour Cost
−0.3%
Labour cost change in Romania · 2025
Romanian labour costs are lower by 15% than in Poland, by 34% than in Czechia, and at the same level as in Hungary.
Productivity per Labour Cost
Labour productivity per unit of labour cost — a measure of business profitability:
🇭🇺 Hungary2.0
🇷🇴 Romania1.7
🇨🇿 Czechia1.7
🇵🇱 Poland1.6
