Inflation Implications of Changing the Consumption Basket Weights in Romania and in the Region

May 14, 2024May 14, 2024 Laurian Lungu

By Ella Kallai Main points: Weights changes of the consumption basket in Romania were inflationary after the outbreak of the pandemic, adding to headline inflation up to 2 percentage points in 2022. From May 2023 onwards, changes in the consumption basket have been beneficial to the disinflationary process The structure of the consumption basket in Romania differs consistently from that in the euro zone and the countries in the region across several product categories. This could imply a greater degree of divergence between domestic inflation and that of the euro zone Thus, there are structural reasons for monetary policy to […]

The Contribution of the Oil & Gas Industry to the Romanian Economy

April 5, 2021April 13, 2021 Radu Burnete

The purpose of this analysis has been to quantify the impact of the oil & gas industry on the Romanian economy, in terms of its contribution to GDP, employment, investments and taxes paid. Given the “technology neutrality” option Romania has in meeting the 2030 climate targets, the results of the study could subsequently be used to aid policy design in the domestic oil and gas sector over the next decade. The results show that, despite the gradual decreasing importance of the oil & gas industry in the economy, the sector still remains an important contributor to Romania’s GDP growth. Oil […]

Beyond the Maastricht Criteria – Romania Country Study

January 28, 2019February 10, 2019 Laurian Lungu

This research was prepared for the Friedrich Erbert Stiftung in 2017 and focuses on the political and economic setting of Euro adoption in Romania.

A Technical Note on the Increase of Minimum Wages in Romania (English, Română)

November 14, 2018February 1, 2019 Laurian Lungu

Since 2012, an aggressive minimum wage (MW) policy has pushed up the level of MW from the equivalent of EUR 160 to EUR 410 in 2018. Current plans envisage further increases, to the equivalent of EUR 450 and EUR 500 respectively, for the holders of a university degree, starting December 2018. And MW could reach EUR 520 and EUR 580 for the holders of a university degree by October 2020. So far, MW rose at an annual rate of 21% over a 6-year time-span.

Joining the Eurozone, A Jump in the Dark

June 8, 2018February 10, 2019 Laurian Lungu

During the Eurosfat Forum in 2018 Laurian delivered a presentation on the main challenges Romanian and some of the unknowns it will face considering the euro zone itself is going through a difficult period.

When Should Romania Join the European Banking Union, Sooner or Later?

January 15, 2015February 10, 2019 cpagadm

Laurian Lungu and Ella Kallai
This paper was prepared for the European Institute in Romania in 2015. Laurian and Ella argued following a thorough analysis, that in joining the Banking Union Romania should adopt a wait and see strategy and carefully weigh the pros and cons.

The Impact of EU Funds on Romanian Finances

November 8, 2012February 10, 2019 Laurian Lungu

Laurian Lungu, 2012
The primary aim of this paper is to look at the potential consequences an increase in the EU budget would have onto the size of the domestic budget deficits. As the simulations in this paper show, if the EU budget for the 2014-2020 period was adopted in the current form put forward by the European Commisson,

A Note on Romania’s Public Debt

August 22, 2012February 10, 2019 Laurian Lungu

Laurian Lungu, 2012
This paper looks at main dynamics regarding Romania’s debt and budget deficits and tries to estimate the structural adjustments needed to put them on a sustainable path.