Category: CPAG Economic Policy Papers Series

Productivity Catching-Up of the Romanian Economy

Laurian Lungu

Although the force of EU frontier strengthened after 2019, the productivity diffusion process slowed down. Romania and CEE were no exceptions. In Romania industry productivity had declined after 2019 (unlike before) and continued to do so. In all subsectors of commercial services, except transport, productivity increased faster than EU frontier after 2019. Declining productivity in public sector is a drag on overall productivity, after 2019 caused by education and health care. In the EU frontier, capital tends to substitute labour while Romania uses less fixed assets and is less labour intensive than EU frontier. Romanian services are less labour intensive and more profitable than CEE and EU frontier – enabling funding for further development.
By Ella Kallai
The full analysis can be read by clicking on the title

EU’s Past and Present Productivity – A Sectoral View

Laurian Lungu

By Ella Kallai The productivity slowdown in the EU is well documented. However, what it is less clear is why this is happening. This analysis explores the ‘whys’. Using the most extended time span (1995-2024) for which all current 27 EU countries have available data on Eurostat for detailed sectoral breakdown (64 sectors) the approach to study EU productivity and EU productivity diffusion is based on the distinction between EU frontier countries (EU frontier) and EU follower countries (EU follower)

Fiscal adjustment must be simple, efficient, and to support economic growth

Laurian Lungu

Romania’s economy continues to slow down, and the fiscal measures currently being discussed seem to focus mainly on a series of tax increases. These could significantly accelerate the deceleration. A fiscal package whose main elements are a temporary increase in the effective VAT rate by at least 3 percentage points, alongside a reduction in public spending—largely investment-related—would be a viable solution. These are simple measures with immediate impact. This option preserves the fragile growth prospects for this year, bringing the budget deficit to -7.8% of GDP in 2025 (on an ESA basis), a realistic level. Conceptually, any increase in taxes […]

Contribuţia industriei de petrol şi gaze la economia României – ediția a 2-a

Radu Burnete

Contribuția sectorului de petrol și gaze la creșterea PIB-ului României a crescut substanțial din 2020, când performanța sa a fost influențată negativ de cererea scăzută din timpul pandemiei. Pe lângă creșterea provenită din volumele de producţie mai mari, o parte semnificativă a acestui câștig este atribuită creșterii prețurilor la petrol și gaze naturale. Sectorul petrol și gaze a reprezentat aproximativ 3,8% din PIB în prima jumătate a anului 2022. Dincolo de această cifră generală analiza noastră s-a aplecat și asupra locurilor de muncă susținute direct de acest sector sau asupra contribuțiilor de natură fiscală fie că vorbim de impozit pe […]

Considerații asupra politicii salariului minim în România

Radu Burnete

Studiul prezinta succint caracteristicile pietei fortei muncii din Romania si analizeaza elemente care influenteaza politica salariului minim (SM). Evalueaza posibile scenarii de crestere a acestuia in viitorul apropiat prin prisma dinamicii SM din ultima decada, luand in considerare si nivelul SM al tarilor din regiune sau proiectiile de crestere a SM din programele de guvernare. Analiza este efectuata la solicitarea și împreună cu Confederația Patronală Concordia.

Romania – The Macroeconomic Impact of the Covid-19 Crisis

Radu Burnete

In this analysis, Ella Kallai and Laurian Lungu look at the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the Romanian economy. The paper starts by highlighting macroeconomic imbalances that existed prior to the crisis. It then assesses the impact on labor markets and economic sectors underscoring the consequences for public finances and country risk. Finally, the analysis addresses the fundamental issue of restarting the economy in the context of the European Green Deal. This analysis was prepared for the Energy Policy Group (EPG) as part of a European Climate Foundation grant.  Download the full analysis (EN) Descărcați analiza (RO)